Speaker:Dr. Qiongda Zhao, Assistant Professor (Mount Royal University, Canada)
Host:Dr. Lan Lan, Assistant Professor (Li Anmin Institute of Economic Research, Liaoning University)
Guest Introducer:Dr. Shukang Xiao, Assistant Professor (Li Anmin Institute of Economic Research, Liaoning University)
Time:June 18, 2026 (Thursday), 10:00 – 11:30 (Beijing Time)
Venue:Room 483, Faculty of Economics Building, Puhe Campus, Liaoning University
Online Access:Tencent Meeting ID: 730-281-8924
Language:Chinese/English
Abstract:Low fertility has become a defining demographic concern in many countries. In response, governments have introduced family benefits to reduce the cost of childbearing and encourage fertility. Yet less is known about how benefit design shapes fertility responses and cost-effectiveness. This paper compares two major family policy reforms in Quebec: a universal baby bonus and an earnings-related parental leave benefit. Using Canadian administrative tax data and a difference-in-differences design, we estimate their fertility effects by exploiting variation across provinces and over time. We find that both programs increase fertility, but the baby bonus generates a larger fertility response per dollar spent. This difference reflects two design features: the baby bonus provides stronger incentives at higher-order birth margins, where responses are larger, while earnings-related parental leave provides larger incentives to higher-income women, whose fertility is less responsive. Tracking cohorts over time and measuring completed fertility, we show that the effects reflect lasting increases in fertility, not merely shifts in birth timing.
Author Profile：
Dr. Qiongda Zhao is an Assistant Professor of Economics in the Department of Economics, Justice, and Policy Studies at Mount Royal University, and also holds a joint appointment as Assistant Professor at the University of Calgary. Her research interests primarily lie in the fields of public economics, labor economics, and health economics. As an applied microeconomist, she employs quasi-experimental methods combined with large-scale administrative data to systematically evaluate the effects of government transfer programs on individual behavior and social welfare, with a particular focus on the distributional impacts across different population groups and issues of equity. She has published academic articles in Applied Economics. Currently, she has a working paper under revision at the Economic Journal, a top-tier international economics journal.
