Recently, a paper co-authored by Professor Zhu Dongming, a full-time professor at the Institute for China Economy (ICE) of Liaoning University, IMF economist He Hui, and Professor Ning Lei from the School of Economics at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, titled "The Impact of Pension Reforms and Rapid Aging on Savings and the Labor Supply: The Case of China," has been officially accepted for publication by the Journal of Public Economics (JPubE), an A-tier international journal in economics. In addition, another paper co-authored by Professor Zhu Dongming, titled "Positivity and Long-Lasting Momentum," has been officially published in the Journal of Empirical Finance (JEF), an A– tier international journal in finance.

Paper Summary

Over the past three decades, China has experienced a decline in social security benefits for urban residents due to pension reforms, alongside dramatic demographic changes. This paper combines empirical research with quantitative analysis under a general equilibrium framework to investigate the effects of China's pension reforms and rapid population aging on household saving and labor supply behavior. By calibrating a large-scale heterogeneous overlapping generations (OLG) general equilibrium model with Chinese economic data, the quantitative analysis finds that approximately 25% of the increase in the household saving rate between 1995 and 2009 can be attributed solely to pension reforms, while 49% of the increase in labor supply over the same period is attributable to pension reforms. Rapid population aging significantly amplifies both effects. The study shows that increased household saving and labor supply are both important self-insurance mechanisms in response to declining pension benefits and longevity risk.

About the Authors

Professor Zhu Dongming joined Liaoning University as a full-time faculty member in January 2026. His research areas include econometric theory and applications, empirical asset pricing in Chinese stock markets, and Chinese economic issues. He has published multiple papers in high-level international academic journals. He currently serves as an Associate Editor of Economic Modelling. Previously, he held positions at Dongbei University of Finance and Economics as Teaching Assistant, Lecturer, and Associate Professor; at Peking University HSBC Business School as Associate Professor; at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics School of Economics as Tenured Associate Professor and Department Chair; and at Jinan University School of Economics as Professor in the Department of Finance.