主讲人：赵琼达 助理教授（加拿大皇家山大学）

主持人：兰兰 助理教授（辽宁大学李安民经济研究院）

嘉宾介绍：肖书康 助理教授（辽宁大学李安民经济研究院）

时间：2026年6月18日（周四） 10:00 - 11:30 （北京时间）

地点：辽宁大学蒲河校区经济学部大楼483室

线上地址：腾讯会议730-281-8924

语言：中文/英文

摘要：Low fertility has become a defining demographic concern in many countries. In response, governments have introduced family benefits to reduce the cost of childbearing and encourage fertility. Yet less is known about how benefit design shapes fertility responses and cost-effectiveness. This paper compares two major family policy reforms in Quebec: a universal baby bonus and an earnings-related parental leave benefit. Using Canadian administrative tax data and a difference-in-differences design, we estimate their fertility effects by exploiting variation across provinces and over time. We find that both programs increase fertility, but the baby bonus generates a larger fertility response per dollar spent. This difference reflects two design features: the baby bonus provides stronger incentives at higher-order birth margins, where responses are larger, while earnings-related parental leave provides larger incentives to higher-income women, whose fertility is less responsive. Tracking cohorts over time and measuring completed fertility, we show that the effects reflect lasting increases in fertility, not merely shifts in birth timing.

主讲人简介：

赵琼达，皇家山大学（Mount Royal University）经济、司法与政策研究系经济学助理教授，并兼任卡尔加里大学（University of Calgary）助理教授。她的研究兴趣主要集中在公共经济学、劳动经济学和健康经济学领域。作为应用微观经济学者，她运用准实验方法并结合大型行政数据，系统评估政府转移支付项目对个人行为和社会福利的影响，重点关注政策效应在不同群体间的分布及其公平问题。她曾在Applied Economics期刊上发表过学术论文。目前，她有工作论文正在国际顶级经济学期刊Economic Journal返修审稿阶段。