近日，辽宁大学胡永泰教授论文Optimising Malaysia's power mix for a sustainable future: a multi-scenariomodelling approach 在《富布莱特经济与政策评论》（Fulbright Review of Economics and Policy, FREP）上发表。
《富布莱特经济与政策评论》（FREP） 是由Emerald Publishing出版的一本高水平国际学术期刊，致力于发布经济学与公共政策领域的前沿研究成果。该期刊旨在为全球学者、政策制定者和研究人员提供一个桥接经济理论与政策实践的高质量平台，尤其关注新兴经济体和发展中国家中的关键议题。
Abstract：Purpose - This study employs advanced modelling to assess the effectiveness of Malaysia's curent energypolicies in achieving a low-carbon future. By optimising a 10096 renewable energy mix, including energy storage, the research identifies pathway's to decarbonise the power sector while minimising costs. These findings will inform the development of future policies.Design/methodology/approach - This study employs the Stockholm Environment institute-developed L.owEmissions Analysis Platform (LE, AP) and Next Energy vodeling system for Optimization (NEMO) to constructand optimise a comprehensive Malaysian power sector model. The model encompasses both electricity supply.including, diverse electricity generation sources and demand across key sectors. Three scenarios - existingpolicy, optimised existing policy and more ambitious policy (near-zero emissions)- are analysed.Findings- Solar photovoltaic (PV) is the dominant technology, but realising its full potential requires significant grid upgrades, While natural gas expansion underpins Malaysia's decarbonisation strategy, solar andstorage otfer a cleaner and potentially cost-effective alternative, Rapid technological advancements in cleanenergy increase stranded asset risk for new gas power plants. Malaysia's abundant bioenergy resources needmore tapping. This can contribute to decarbonisation and rural development, Transitioning to a fully renewable grid necessitates substantial investments in energy storage and grid infrastructure. While falling, battery costsand regional interconnection can mitigate costs, careful consideration of potential disruptions and costtluctuations is essential for resilience.Research limitation simplications-Energy sector modelling results are inherently dependent on input assumptions, such as future technology costs, resource availability and fossil fuel prices. These factors can behighly uncertain. While this study did not conduct sensitivity analyses to explore how variations in theseassumptions might atfect the results (e.g. cost variations across scenarios, technology mix fluctuations), the corefindings provide valuable insights into potential decarbonisation pathways for Malaysia's power sector. Futurestudies could build upon this work by incorporating sensitivity analyses to provide a more comprehensive understanding of how key results might change under a wider range of future possibilities.Originality/value - This study co-optimises a 100% renewable energy mix for Malaysia, incorporating acomprehensive range of renewable resources, battery and pumped hydro storage. The research also provides aunique perspective on the interplay of philosophical underpinnings, psychological maturity and energy policy.
作者简介：
胡永泰（Wing Thye Woo），哈佛大学博士，美国加州大学戴维斯分校经济系教授，兼任布鲁金斯学会资深研究员、哥伦比亚大学东亚项目主任。主要研究领域为宏观经济、国际金融与汇率经济、经济增长与发展，以及全球化和东亚问题。其在经济学和金融学领域享有崇高的学术声誉，在American Economic Review、Journal of International Economics、Journal of Money、Credit and Banking、Journal of International Money and Finance等国际权威杂志上发表论文约150篇，并出版多部专著。其撰写论文曾荣获《国际经济学杂志》评选的30年历史上最具影响力的25篇论文之一。曾担任多家国际学术期刊的学术顾问；《亚洲经济文集》和《中国经济与商学研究》编辑；《规划经济学》和《亚洲经济》协作编辑。在全球多个大学、研究机构和国际机构中担任研究职务，为众多国家政府部门和国际机构在宏观经济、外汇管理、国有企业重组、贸易问题和金融部门发展等方面提供了宝贵的决策咨询和建议。
原文下载链接：https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/frep-07-2024-0040/full/pdf?title=optimising-malaysias-power-mix-for-a-sustainable-future-a-multi-scenario-modelling-approach
